A Glimpse: Indo-China Clash of Forces

This is not self made but a sharing on grounds of nationalism, patriotism or whatever you call it.

As we see China is superior to India in every possible way from Aircrafts, Armoured vehicles, Submarines and even the Defence Budget.

Now, let's assume that China is attacking and India is defending. India is not interested in expanding its territories, unlike China. (e.g. Tibet, South China sea, Taiwan, etc.)

Now, let us see about the Biggest weakness of China.

It’s GEOGRAPHY

Let us divide the war centers into Land, Sea and Air . First let’s discuss a conflict between People’s Liberation Army vs Indian Army assets. The manpower is the same so we will keep that aside for the moment.

Land Warfare - PLA vs IA:

A 40,000 Armoured Vehicles superiority over 2800 on the Indian side means  over a border that spreads over hundreds of kilometers of rocky, inhospitable, monstrously huge Himalayas with narrow passes.

The first thing that India can do to defend its territory is to destroy crucial bridges, turn all-weather roads into rubble and block strategic mountain passes. Once that is done, the advancing army will be stopped cold.

That is Strike One.

Air Warfare - PLAAF vs IAF:

PLAAF aircraft has undoubted numerical superiority.

But what about logistics. Take a look at this.

PLAAF has only 5 large airbases in Tibet and 2 in Xinjiang. India on the other hand has nearly 20 bases within flight range of the LAC.

So where are the majority of the 3000 aircraft of the PLAAF?

They are on the eastern side.

3500 km away from the action.

This would mean mid-air refueling.

It would mean a longer time to respond after a primary attack.

And India will be able to track the incoming aircraft long before it reaches the war theater.

The seven Chinese airbases near the Indian border are not adequate for an Indian attack/retaliation.

Group Capt (Retd) Ravinder S Chhatwal says: 

“To launch any air campaign, fighter aircraft have to be deployed close to the border, roughly about 200 km to 300 km from the border of your enemy. Against India, China will have to deploy its fighter aircraft in Tibet and adjacent airfields in Xinjiang. China has 2,100 combat aircraft but most of them are deployed on its eastern seaboard. They cannot deploy all of them against India because of limited number of airfields in Tibet.”

“Now, the second point is that to carry out sustained fighter aircraft operations, airfields have to be mutually supporting. By mutually supporting, I mean, that if you take off from an airfield there should be another airfield nearby within 100 or 200 km, so that in case of requirement for diversion etc., you have an alternative airfield. In the northern Xinjiang sector’s two airfields Hotan and Kashgar - the distance between them is 450 km while the distance between Hotan and Gargunsa is 550 kms. Hotan to Korla, the distance is 750 km so they are not mutually supportive. In western Tibet, there is only one airfield, Gargunsa. If Gargunsa is bombed by the Indian Air Force, there will be a gap of 1,500 km between Hotan and nearest airfield Hoping.”

Group Capt Chhatwal (Retd) concludes by making a pertinent point:

“There is another limitation which they have. In the airfield, when you park aircraft for fighter operations, they have to be in blast protected shelters - concrete shelters. China doesn’t have any blast protected shelters at any of the airfields. After Doklam they have realised their mistake and have now started building these in Kongka Dzong (Lhasa) airfield.”

There is another Logistic problem. That of cargo weight.

Indian airbases with the exception of a few are the on the plains.

Tibet airbases are at an altitude of 4000m above sea level.

The lower air density at such high altitudes hampers jet engines and limits the amount of Weapons and fuel military aircraft can carry while still being able to take off.

Meteorological conditions across the Tibetan Plateau, moreover, are unpredictable, making it difficult to plan high-intensity air campaigns.

In short, the PLAAF cannot hope to run a Sustained air campaign.

That is Strike Two

Now let’s talk about the Navy.

Sea Warfare - PLAN vs IN:

This one is really interesting because PLAN has 76 submarines compared to a paltry 16 subs on our end. In total, China has 714 naval assets while India has only 295.

But China again has a Geography problem.

And that’s the choke point in the Straits of Malacca.

If the Chinese Navy enter the IOR (Indian Ocean region) to engage with the Indian Navy, they will have to come through this Strait. And this channel is very narrow; only 2km at its narrowest point.

It will be difficult for them to send naval assets in the IOR without significant resistance from the Indian Navy guarding the entrance via Indira Point.

The second, even more important point is that of OIL.

Oil is the fuel on which the war machine runs.

And 80% of China’s oil is imported through the Malacca strait.

A naval blockade on Malacca, Lombok and Sunda straits will bring upon an oil crisis.

China has stored oil reserves in certain places for emergencies. 

But it won’t last long if they use it on a war-footing. Or if its targeted by India.

Without oil, their entire military juggernaut will come to a screeching halt.

And that’s why I mentioned that China can be checkmated in a week.

Strike Three.

But not yet out.

Why?

Because MISSILES!

The easiest way China can overcome their Geography problem is by launching Dongfeng Missiles.

But it will be an unwise move.

When a Missile is in the air, their is no way for the other country to know if the warhead is conventional or nuclear.

India will assume nuclear and launch its own Agni missiles.

And then it will be pouring Dongfengs and Agnis on India and China.

Cloudy with a chance of nukes…

The decision for both countries will be: Counterforce or Countervalue?

Counterforce means attacking enemy’s military installations.

Countervalue means attacking cities and innocent civilian population centers.

Nuclear think-tanks believe that in the fog of war, misinformation and disinformation will be at its peak.

A country starting with Counterforce attack, would assume the other can make (or has made) a Countervalue attack.

Once a single missile is launched between nuclear rivals, it can quickly escalate to Countervalue attacks targeting dozens of big cities including Mumbai and Shanghai.

The death toll will be in millions.

More than the casualties in the Second World War.

Both nations will be pushed back by a quarter of a century.

And that will end the much touted Asian Century.

To come back to the question: Can India defeat China in a full-fledged war?

All answers can be found in History.

The most powerful superpower USA failed to defeat an undeveloped Vietnam even after trying for 20 years.

China & India are third and fourth strongest military in the world. There’s NO way either can defeat the other.

At best, they can claim few square kilometers of each other’s territories.

Eventually they will have to come to the negotiating table.

So it will be all for naught.

In fact, it will cost a saddening amount of lives with no tangible gains.

Source: One of the Telegram Groups.